May 2009
- the number of units sold increased 37% mom (+368% yoy) to 1,668.
- the number of units launched increased 7% mom (+244% yoy) to 1,161.
- median price levels for mass market and mid-tier projects in May suggest a 2-3% increase in price levels compared with that in the previous month.
The mid-tier segment has registered strong sales of 609 units, up 67% mom, accounting for nearly 37% of all the units sold. The mass market segment, on the other hand, took a breather after a strong showing in the first quarter, with monthly sales declining 16% mom to 442 units.
June 2009
- a record 1,825 units were sold in Jun 09 (+9.1% QoQ, +127.8% YoY).
- uncompleted homes (the number of units launched) increased 41% mom to 1,637 units.
- an average 5.2% MoM price hike (May 09 saw 3 - 5% hike).
- a fifth consecutive month of > 1,000 sold units.
Mass and mid projects continue to dominate, making up 71.2% of total sales. 58.7% of transactions came under S$1,000 psf. Median prices for mass and mid projects were up 6.3 – 7.0% MoM (to S$729 psf and S$911 psf respectively). Prime projects jumped 13.0% MoM to S$1,661 psf, underpinned by several luxury projects (saw units sold at above S$3,000psf with the highest one being the S$3,813psf for the unit at Nassim Park Residences), i.e. Orchard Residences (7), St Regis Residences (3) and single units in Hamilton Scotts, Nassim Park Residences and Ritz-Carlton Residences.
Major sales for the last two months are:
- 330 units at 8@Woodleigh project at a median price of 804psf
- 186 units at Martin Place Residences at median prices of S$1,423 psf
- 146 units at the One Devonshire project at a median price of S$1,771psf
- 140 units at The Wharf at median prices of S$1,186 psf
- 98 units at The Arte at a median price of S$933 psf
- 89 units at The Mezzo at a median price of S$903 psf
Q2 and H1 of 2009
- the total number of units sold in 2Q09 to 4,714 units (+77% qoq, +195% yoy).
- 7,374 units sold for 1H09.
The second quarter alone has exceeded the 4,370 units sold for the whole of last year and it is the best quarterly showing in two years since the sale of 4,820 units observed at the height of the property boom in 2Q07.
Reasons for robust sales activity:- confluence of pent-up demand,
- HDB upgrader market,
- low interest rates (driving interest towards property investment and away from bank deposits),
- positive sentiments,
- improving macroeconomic landscape.
Looking forward.....
A monthly sales volume of more than 300 units represents a good support level for further price upside potential from current levels, which remain 20 – 30% off their 4Q07 peak. This comfortable pricing should also ensure a healthy take-up for upcoming prime launches. As foreigners have yet to enter in droves, we believe domestic and regional speculative-investors should stand to profit as the current upcycle gears up.
The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) reported a better-than-expected 2Q09 GDP growth advance estimate of - 3.7% yoy, which is a significant improvement from the 9.6% contraction in 1Q09. MTI has raised its 2009 full-year GDP growth forecast to between - 6% and -4% from the previous -9% to -6%. The job market has also held relatively stable and recent surveys suggest an improvement in the second half outlook.
However, on the other side, the average price of freehold non-landed resale private homes in prime districts 9, 10 and 11 increased 11.3% to $1,247 per sq foot in the second quarter from Q1. This followed a 3.7% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) price fall in Q1. The average resale prices have fell only 10-35% between Q4 2007 and Q1 2009, compared with the fall of 35-45% from the Q2 1996 peak to the Q4 1998 Asian financial crisis trough.
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