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Monday, July 20, 2009

Rebound in HDB resale flats shows stability

The slight rebound in HDB resale flat prices indicates a stable, not a rising, market, said Minister for National Development Mah Bow Tan. URA flash estimates had shown that the HDB resale price index rose 1.2% in Q2, against a 0.8% dip in Q1.

The Housing Development Board (HDB) has announced plans to offer some 8,000 new flats this year. The HDB launched about 1,300 new flats in the first quarter of this year under its build-to-order (BTO) system, where units are built only when a certain level of demand is reached. It plans to launch a further 2,400 such flats from April to September, subject to demand. The bulk of these will be in Punggol.

A historic PPI since 1990 is shown above. It can be seen that PPI always peak when there is a continuous positive QoQ change, likese the other way round.

40,000 new private homes will enter the property market in the next three to four years, according to the National Development Minister, Mah Bow Tan. He said on Thursday that more property information, such as transaction prices, would be published to keep the market efficient and ensure that home prices are based on fundamentals. Mr Mah said the government will monitor both demand and supply and make adjustments as needed. He also noted that the buying momentum was unlikely to be driven by speculators. "So far, I think we don't see any. But if there is, then we will take the appropriate action," said Mr Mah.

Based on the past information, some analysts guess that this round will be a V-shape recovery based on the fact that Demand is greater than Supply. But will this be the case? We shall see.


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